By VIKKI ORVICE
And the cost to businesses in the country as a whole could be as much as £1BILLION — heaping more misery on retailers battling to recover from recession.
England’s 1-1 draw in Podgorica on Tuesday has left Roy Hodgson’s men with an uphill task to secure their place in Brazil next summer.
They are currently two points behind leaders Montenegro with only four Group H games remaining and the prospect of everything resting on the final clash against old-foes Poland — who famoulsy stopped England qualifying for the 1974 finals.
Aside from the national humiliation, failure to reach the World Cup finals for the first time since 1994 would have serious implications for the FA’s bank balance.
Just by making it to Brazil, the FA would be guaranteed £8 million in prize money — the minimum amount for teams eliminated in the group stage and up 33 per cent from the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.
That rises up to £16 million for reaching the quarter-finals, a reasonable expectation for England based on past tournaments, and £26.5 million for winning the World Cup outright but they are likely to do so anyway, if you judge by 2014 world cup betting odds.
The governing body could also expect to make at least £10 million from the demand for merchandise, principally from the royalties it would receive on replica England shirts.
When Steve McClaren failed to get England to Euro 2008, Umbro was forced to issue a profits warning, such was the effect of England shirt sales on its bottom line.
Nike, who bought the Umbro brand five years ago, is due to unveil a new kit in the summer and shirt sales are predicted to top one million if England make it to the finals.
Industry experts also believe the FA would be left in a seriously weakened position when it comes to negotiating new sponsorship deals at the end of the 2013-14 season if England fail to get on the plane to Brazil.
The FA makes more than £50 million a year from its commercial deals, a crucial part of its overall income.
But Nationwide lost patience with the ailing England brand after the failure to qualify for Euro 2008 was compounded by England’s dismal showing at the 2010 World Cup.
It opted not to renew its lead sponsor deal and it took six months for the FA to sign up Vauxhall as a replacement, costing it £3 million in revenue.
National Express, a more recent addition to the FA Partner Programme, also pulled out as England’s official travel operator following the 2010 World Cup debacle.
And Nigel Currie, a director of leading sponsorship and sports marketing company Brand Rapport, warned that failure to qualify for Brazil could have dire consequences.
He said: “I think the damage would be significant. The actual status of the England team is looking like it’s starting to diminish. Not qualifying for the World Cup would be a huge blow.
“If you don’t qualify, it would certainly put a lot of doubt in sponsors’ minds because the World Cup is a really big opportunity to cash in on all the work.
“The England team doesn’t come together very often, certainly not competitively, so a World Cup or a European Championship is a really big payday for the sponsors and they will build all their activity around that.”
World Cup elimination would also have a knock-on effect on the wider UK economy, with retailers missing out on the surge in sales in beer, food and televisions that normally accompanies England’s qualification for championship finals.
The British Retail Consortium estimated that the team’s failure to make it to Euro 2008 cost the economy as much as £600 million with a higher price put on a place in the World Cup finals.
Pubs, clubs and off-licences raked in more than £250m in extra sales during the 2010 World Cup.
Then there are the big supermarket chains hoping for “barbecue summers” to accompany a good England run as well as TV retailers, bookmakers and even travel companies eager to cash in on hoardes of fans flying down to Rio.
